I am the Sports Editor of the sports news and gambling website. I have many years of experience of sports journalism, gambling as well as studying mathematics. Do I have the qualifications of a gambling expert? Perhaps, but I suppose you could say that.
There are many gambling experts willing to dish out details of their gambling systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for the cost of course. We won’t be doing this. I’ll simply www.ufabet provide information about bookmakers, odds and other gambling options for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.
The first thing to note is the fact that the vast majority of people who engage in gambling will be net loser over the course of time. This is the very reason there are so many bookmakers that make a lot of money across the world.
However, when bookmakers take huge losses, such as if a favorite is victorious in the Grand National, they spread their risk to the maximum extent and they set up markets that have margins, which means they always earn an income over the medium and long term, if not the immediate term. This is as long as they got the right numbers.
When determining the odds of a particular event they must first evaluate the likelihood of this event occurring. In order to do this, they employ different statistical models based upon records accumulated over a period of time or even decades of data about the sport , team or player in question. If sport could be 100% certain it would end its appeal. although the bookies are usually spot on with their assessments about the probabilities associated with the event, they are sometimes way off the mark because a game or competition is not in line with conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Simply look at any sports and you will find occasions where the underdog wins against all odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then powerful Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988 for instance or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the year 1980 Olympics are two instances of occasions where you could have had impressive odds for the underdog. You could also have walked away with a substantial wedge.
The big bookmakers spend lots of time and money ensuring that they are able to calculate the right odds, which ensures they take into account the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra small amount to give them an income margin. So if an event has a probability of, say 1/3, the odds that represent this probability would be 2/1. This is it is two-to-one against the event occurring.
However, a bookmaker who would set these odds would in time reach a point where they would break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would make the odds, say 6/4. In this way , they’ve built in the margin that guarantees that, over time, they will gain from betting on this selection. It’s the same concept as a casino roulette.
How can you tell the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier to say than done, however it’s very much doable.
One way is to get very good at mathematical modelling and create a model that takes into all of the variables that impact the outcome of an event as you can. The problem with this tactic is that no matter how intricate the model is, and however vast it appears the model is not able to be able to account for the nuances of factors that impact individuals’ mental states. If a golfer is able to hit a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th hole at St Andrews it is as much down to their concentration as much as the weather or the day or week. In addition, the maths get pretty complicated.
There is also the possibility of finding the perfect sport niche. Bookmakers focus their efforts on the events that make the most money. These are generally found to be the game of football (soccer), American football and horse racing. Therefore, battling the bookies when betting on the outcome of a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be a challenge. If you don’t work for some of the teams, or are married to one of the players or managers It is highly likely that the bookmaker that is setting the betting odds has more info than you.
If you’re placing bets on football that is not league or badminton or crown green bowls, it’s feasible with a lot of effort reading many statistics, and general data gathering you could begin to make a difference over bookmakers (if they do provide odds for such events, which many do).
What do you do when you’ve got an the edge in information terms? You must be aware of the value.
Value betting involves placing your place a bet on a particular selection with odds that are greater than the chance of the event taking place. So for instance, if you assess the probability of a certain non-league soccer team (Grimsby Town, for instance) taking their place in the next football game as 1/3 or 33% If you locate a bookmaker who has established odds of 3/1 you’ve got a value bet that you are able to place. The reason for this is because the odds at three-to-one (excluding the margin set by the bookie) indicate a chance of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, according to your current opinion is underestimating Grimsby’s odds so you’ve added an 8% chance of winning for yourself.
Of course, Grimsby (as often is the situation) could make a mistake and lose the game. In this case, it could result in losing the bet. If you continue to seek out and bet on the value bets, over time, you’ll be able to make profits. If you don’t in the long run, you will lose.